Every major project decision — greenlighting a field development, choosing between competing investments, setting a budget contingency — comes down to the same underlying question: what's the risk-adjusted economic case, and how confident can we be in it?

The Project Risk, Economics and Decision-Making course from the Arab British Fellowship Training Academy gives participants the analytical toolkit to answer that question with rigour: cost-benefit analysis, financial risk valuation, decision-tree and Monte Carlo methods, and the practical frameworks decision-makers lean on in dynamic, uncertain environments. Participants start from first principles — inflation, interest, and the time value of money — before building up to full economic evaluations backed by spreadsheet and simulation tools.

Who Should Attend?

Anyone whose role touches project investment decisions, including:

• Planning, project, and commercial managers, plus project management professionals.
• Analysts, economists, and business advisors.
• Geologists, E&P managers, and product managers.
• Government officials and asset managers involved in project evaluation.

What You'll Gain

Delivered through slides, short videos, active class discussion, and hands-on work in Microsoft Excel's risk module, the course builds participants' ability to:

• Handle uncertainty in projects using expected-value concepts, decision-tree analysis, and expectancy theory, including risk aversion and risk premium.
• Use spreadsheet and simulation software to model project risk with confidence.
• Assess project cash flow with standard economic indicators when comparing competing alternatives.
• Run a complete economic evaluation of a project, including risk and sensitivity analysis.
• Improve decision-making, cost optimisation, and strategic planning based on risk-adjusted evidence.
• Increase project success rates by spotting risk early and adapting faster.

Module 1: Foundations — Economics, Cost Models and Risk Types

• Key principles of project economics and financial models.
• Cost-estimation techniques and life-cycle cost analysis.
• Types of project risk: technical, financial, operational, and more.

Module 2: Financial Evaluation Essentials: NPV, IRR and Payback

• Net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR).
• Payback period and profitability index.
• Cash-flow analysis and financial forecasting.

Module 3: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

• Decision trees and probability analysis.
• Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis.
• Sensitivity analysis and what-if scenarios.

Module 4: Identifying, Assessing and Mitigating Risk

• Risk identification, assessment, and prioritisation techniques.
• Developing risk-response strategies.
• Implementing risk monitoring and control measures, with case studies on successful mitigation.

Module 5: Managing Risk Across a Project Portfolio

• Risk-adjusted return on investment (ROI).
• Strategic decision-making in portfolio management.
• Balancing risk and reward across multi-project environments.